QQQ + TQQQ satellite: long-term bullish with a leverage tilt
Compare 100% QQQ to several QQQ/TQQQ splits at once—buy & hold vs rebalancing once a year—using a 20-year style backtest (2008 and 2022 included).
What this simulates
March 2005 – March 2025 (20 years): same starting balance across rows. 100% QQQ (1× Nasdaq-100) vs mixes of QQQ + TQQQ (3× daily). Pick several QQQ/TQQQ ratios to compare final balances and paths— buy & hold each leg vs rebalancing once a year back to your target mix. TQQQ did not exist before 2010; pre-2010 returns use a synthetic 3× daily path from QQQ. Returns are after expense ratios: QQQ 0.18%, TQQQ 0.82% (annual fee drag on each leg’s gross return). Not financial advice.
Your numbers
| Allocation | Buy & hold final | Rebalance final | Return (BH) | Return (rebal.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% QQQ | 1,491,566 | 1,491,566 | 1392% | 1392% |
| 95/5 | 2,469,350 | 1,888,286 | 2369% | 1788% |
| 90/10 | 1,640,414 | 2,135,944 | 3347% | 2260% |
| 85/15 | 4,424,918 | 2,914,354 | 4325% | 2814% |
| 80/20 | 5,402,703 | 3,557,816 | 5303% | 3458% |
For the 90/10 row, buy-and-hold and yearly rebalance finals are scaled to match the published analysis (1,640,414 and 2,135,944 from $100K); path shapes follow the same annual return sequence. 100% QQQ is calibrated to 1,491,566. Other ratios use the raw simulation (no scaling).
Compare ratios (yearly rebalance vs 100% QQQ)
One line per selected ratio (rebalance path), plus 100% QQQ.
- 100% QQQ
- 95/5 rebalance
- 90/10 rebalance
- 85/15 rebalance
- 80/20 rebalance
One ratio: buy & hold vs rebalance
Three lines for a single allocation—compare behavior for the mix you care about.
- 100% QQQ
- Buy & hold
- Rebalance yearly
Volatility drag: leveraged ETFs rebalance daily; in choppy or flat markets TQQQ can lose value even when the index is flat. A small satellite limits how much of your portfolio faces that path.
Psychology: in a crisis the TQQQ slice can draw down far more than QQQ. You have to avoid panic-selling the plan for a multi-decade hold.
Read the QQQ + TQQQ satellite blog for the full comparison table, 2008 context, and links to planning tools.